South Korea launched the world’s first nationwide 5G mobile network in April 2019. The 5G deployment by SK Telecom, KT and LG Uplus was possible due to strong back up by Korean government as it wants to stimulate stuttering economic growth. Few days later, Verizon wireless also launched 5G mobile services in selected markets of the US. Our research shows that clear shift of focus towards 5G happened in 2017 and in the beginning of early 2018. According to our analysis of global 5G developments, we are highly optimistic of several other commercial 5G launches in 2019. This also confirms that ecosystems required for 5G are well in place. Initial stage of industry specifications is available, and telcos are investing in Pre-5G equipments as well as confirming their trials.
Moreover, the availability of 5G spectrum in several countries supports the timing and scale of 5G deployments. Our research shows that 3.4-3.8 GHz is the primary band for initial 5G launches. 24.25-29.5 GHz is the second most preferred spectrum band after 3.4-3.8 GHz. China is expected to achieve 5G commercialisation by 2020. Moreover, China is also expected to become one of the leaders in 5G technology, standards, industries and applications. The 5G ecosystem in China is growing at a commendable pace and it is poised to emerge as tier-1 market in the global 5G industry. Adoption of 5G will differ depending on the market. As competitive operators will reach nationwide 5G coverage, adoption will accelerate.
To retain their high-value customer bases and keep a network edge, market leaders have to launch 5G first; challengers must minimise this edge and consider disruptive pricing strategies for pre-5G offerings.
Device strategies are important in order to drive upgrades: Ensuring the availability of a range of devices including popular, exclusive as well as low-cost devices that meet operator configuration requirements such as frequencies and backward compatibility with 2G, 3G, and 4G networks is fundamental. Samsung launched its Galaxy S10 5G smartphone in April 2018 in South Korea. It got available in the US markets in May 2019. Verizon customers are getting first chance to buy this device in the US. Mobile users in the UK will have to wait slightly longer. EE has partnered with Samsung to sell the Galaxy S10 5G in the UK and it plans to launch 5G in London, Cardiff, Birmingham, Belfast, Edinburgh and Manchester by this summer. 5G device adoption can be maximised by offering low-cost devices, providing financing and annual handset upgrade options, limiting the availability of non-5G devices if appropriate (just like Jio 4G) and offering smartphones that target less technology-savvy customers. Pricing 5G at a premium can clearly be the right strategy in markets where demand is strong, thus boosting margins. However, premium pricing comes with downsides and risks, which may be that much effective in price sensitive markets.
Driving wide adoption of data-intensive services is crucial to a successful 5G strategy. New services must not only take advantage of 5G better speeds and performance but also encourage greater data usage to boost ARPS.
5G drives data usage, typically increasing consumption by 300%-1000% compared with 4G.
Moreover, 5G can provide an attractive alternative to fixed broadband; just how attractive depends on the market. Voice over 5G (Vo5G) will give a boost to voice services and help counter OTT providers. However, operator approaches and plans to providing high-quality Vo5G services will vary. 5G will not only enrich experiences for existing applications but also enable new IoT use cases which cannot be enabled by 4G, which helped launch the app revolution and breathed a second wind into the largest internet companies. 5G will serve and change how we think about connectivity for home, enterprises and other industry verticals.
Let’s check few real use cases operators are working upon.
5G Real-Time Traffic Monitoring System:
NTT Docomo and Sumitomo Electric are developing a real-time traffic monitoring system. The real-time collection and delivery of traffic information leverages high-definition sensors connected via a 5G mobile communications system for advanced driving support. The sensors are connected via 5G network to send real time traffic information and then feed back to drivers and pedestrians. 5G's ultra-high data rate, ultra-high data capacity and ultralow latency enables the traffic monitoring system to collect and analyse high-definition data on traveling vehicles and their surrounding environments, such as pedestrians and road conditions. The data is collected with HD cameras, LiDAR sensors that use laser light to measure the distances and positions of targets and millimeter-wave sensors that use radio waves to measure distances and positions.
Virtual Tourism: TIM last year demonstrated a virtual reality visit in real-time using trial 5G network. During the demonstration, from the Polytechnic of Turin, it was possible to visit Piazza Carlo Alberto although it is located at a distance of several kilometres. An avatar guide accompanied the visitor - equipped with a viewer and sensors - in the historic square, giving the opportunity to experience the capabilities of virtual reality. An immersive experience obtained through the potential of 5G network that made immediate communication between the guide, virtual environment, and the visitor.
Scope of the report, What you will achieve from this report?
#. This report examines 4G to 5G planning by operators, network deployment considerations, product and pricing strategies and 5G adoption trends as well as drivers for market growth. Highlighting what works and what doesn’t — based on the experience of commercial operators — it uncovers the pain points and the keys to success for 5G service providers worldwide.
#. 4G to 5G technology roadmaps, 5G network deployment update and market opportunity: This report outlines why 5G has been getting strong response from leading operators. It details the standards and evolutionary roadmaps as well as Vo5G readiness, and gives the current global deployment status by frequency band.
Also included is Researchica’s assessment of the global market opportunity for 5G adoption.
#. 5G business models and impact on operator KPIs: This report offers a comparative analysis of lessons learned from 5G deployments, looking at network deployments, adoption, devices, pricing, data usage, ARPS, services, Vo5G, and positioning against fixed broadband.
#. Analysis of leading and emerging 5G markets: In-depth country case studies analysing the evolution from 4G to 5G, and a comparative study of how operators are competing in terms of network deployment, pricing and positioning.
#. The report offers a comprehensive examination of lessons learned and best practices from initial 5G deployments to help executives develop business plans and product development plans, effectively as well as optimise resource allocation and return on investment.
#. This report provides a five-year forecast of 5G demand to enable executives to effectively position their companies for emerging trends in-demand for new products and services, and growth opportunities.
Key Questions Answered in the Report
1. How are leading operators planning for their transition from 4G to 5G? How is every market different, and What different approaches can desirous operators inculcate into their strategy while planning for 5G deployment?
2. How are different operators manoeuvring the pre/ post deployment 5G issues?
3. What are the 5G monetisation plans of early adopters during 2019-2020? What key products/ services portfolio are going to feature in the early tranches of 5G (B2B/ B2C) offerings?
4. What strategies do 4G to 5G players need to adopt to keep their EBITDAs unscathed & ARPUs balanced, especially during the early 6 to 8 months period post 5G launch?
5. What are different timespans of 5G launches, worldwide? How can challengers take advantage of the 'right timing' considered crucial for early uptake?
6. Not looking to deploy 5G anytime soon! What should be the ideal strategies for late 5G entrants?
7. How can operators in under-developed/ developing economies turn the very disadvantages into unique strengths vis-à-vis 5G deployments?
8. How to keep monetising 4G while unshadowing the impact of 5G in your local markets? What role 4G will play till 2025 and beyond? How much 4G-enabled growth opportunity Researchica speculates for period 2019-2025?
9. Which key verticals 5G is going to light in near & distant future? How can challengers use this opportunity to carve out their own niches and monetise?
10. Why 5G is being discussed so much without any actual demand in short term? How operators in the US and South Korea are positioning their 5G networks? How much immediate, short or long term potential does Researchica see in the plans developed by handful US & South Korean operators during 2019-2024?
11. Who are the leading 5G vendors across the globe? How does Researchica rate them on the basis of costs, portfolio quality, & delivery?
12. Where are Japanese, Chinese, and Indian operators vis a vis 5G deployment status?
13. What will the 5G-enabled growth opportunity be during 2019-2025 across consumer, enterprise and industry verticals?
14. What are our recommendations for effective business collaborations amongst operators and vendors?
Key Findings of the Report
1. South Korea launched the world’s first nationwide 5G mobile network in April 2019.
2. Verizon wireless launched 5G mobile services in selected markets of the US in April 2019.
3. USA and South Korea have established themselves as the early leaders in 5G. With large scale 5G roll out, South Korea is currently leading the 5G marketplace both globally and in the Asia Pacific region. Although, South Korea is a mature telecom market, the developing and underdeveloped markets in Asia and Africa also hold huge business potential for 5G.
4. 3.4-3.8 GHz is the primary band for initial 5G launches. 24.25-29.5 GHz is the second most preferred spectrum band after 3.4-3.8 GHz.
5. 70% of the operators are expected to launch 5G by 2023. MNOs delaying 5G deployments will face unbeatable competition from established 5G players after 2021.
6. 5G is expected to account for 10% of the total mobile subscriptions globally in 2023.
7. China is expected to achieve 5G commercialisation by 2020. Moreover, China is also expected to become one of the leaders in 5G technology, standards, industries and applications. The 5G ecosystem in China is growing at a commendable pace and it is poised to emerge as tier 1 market in the global 5G industry.
8. In India, mobile broadband would be an important application for 5G, which would also bring down the cost of data per GB. Moreover, 5G will help improve ARPU/ ARPS for bleeding telecom companies.
9. According to our survey among urban consumers in India, more than 40% smartphone users will change either immediately or within 6 months to a service provider that launches 5G. This emphasizes the need and want for faster, more capable telecom networks that can address the rapidly growing data traffic in India.
10. As telecom operators move towards 5G, they are looking to simplify operations and reduce time to market for new functionalities.
11. 5G Network Coverage, Efficiency Enhancing Solutions (such as small cells), Commercial Contracts, Product/ Service Portfolio (new 5G specific scalable use cases), and R&D/ Patents are the top five areas that will have the maximum impact on operator's RoI.
11. The ever growing demand for 4K/ 8K video, AR gaming, and VR will be the initial drivers of 5G in consumer segment in the next 5 years. Video (including 4K/ 8K) will account for 60% of 5G data traffic by 2025.
12. 5G subscriber base is projected to cross 1.5 billion mark in 2025. Asia will be the leading 5G market by 2025, accounting for more than 50% of the global 5G market. Europe is expected to account for close to 17% of total 5G subscriptions in 2025.
13. Telecom operators will achieve 5G revenues worth US$ 502 billion in 2025, with North America and Asia-Pacific commanding more than 60% market in terms of revenue. Europe will account 22% revenue share by 2025, while Latin America and Africa & Middle East will account for 11% and 5%, respectively.
14. 5G can offer unprecedented opportunity to tie-2/3 level operators. Voice/Data/SMS will be offered free by 2023 with major revenue contributions to come from uber cool and productive use-cases & services, B2B & B2C, both. Retail, Smart City Logistics and Transportation, Healthcare, Entertainment, and Manufacturing will be early adopters of 5G technology.
1.1 Objectives of the Study
1.2 Scope of the Study
1.3 Research Methodology
2.0 4G to 5G Transformations
2.1 4G becomes mainstream globally, pushing 2G/3G shut down
2.2 4G migration continues: Telcos are pushing to increase population coverage
2.3 Telcos are continuously increasing 4G performances and moving towards 5G
2.4 4G upgrades – 4.5G and 4.9G – allowed new range of services
2.4.1 4G Network Modernisation
2.4.2 Decide timing of Network modernisation
2.4.3 Worldwide 4G Network modernisation trend
2.5 CASE STUDY: Verizon Wireless 4G network modernisation Analysis & Comments
2.6 CASE STUDY: AT&T’s Initial 5G Network - Is it really 5G or a marketing gimmick?
2.7 Strategic importance of 4G for 5G
2.7.1 What role 4G will play till 2025 and beyond?
2.7.2 Strategic Importance of Wi-Fi in 5G era
2.8 5G: A transformation in progress
2.9 Worldwide Government 5G initiatives and plans
3.0 5G Technology Background, Deployment Status, Market Adoption Trend, and Future Outlook
3.2 What are the motivations for developing 5G?
3.3 5G World: How Much Closer Are We?
3.3.1 5G deployment status
3.3.2 5G market adoption trends and forecast
3.3.3 South Korea and the USA lead global 5G race
3.3.4 Europe is lagging behind Asia and North America on 5G with a few exceptions
3.3.5 Worldwide 5G Roadmaps: Operator level Market Analysis
220.127.116.11 5G roadmap in North America
18.104.22.168 5G roadmap in Asia Pacific
22.214.171.124 5G roadmap in Europe
126.96.36.199 5G roadmap in Latin America
188.8.131.52 5G roadmap in Middle East & Africa
3.3.6 5G to become mainstream in 2023
3.3.7 Operators still cautious on 5G business model
3.3.8 Real 5G Use Cases: Technology readiness and operator approaches
4.0 5G Go-to-Market Strategies: Deployment, Positioning, and Monetisation
4.1 5G spectrum trends and strategies to improve spectrum availability
4.2 5G Network deployment strategies and best practices
4.3 Drivers for 5G adoption and growth
4.4 5G devices and key considerations for service providers
4.5 5G-based services: Accelerating new growth opportunities for service providers
4.6 Trends in data traffic over 5G
4.7 Positioning 5G as a fixed broadband alternative
4.8 5G timelines and opportunities for service providers
4.9 Voice over 5G (Vo5G)
4.9.1 Introduction to Vo5G
4.9.2 Vo5G Standardisation
4.9.3 Vo5G to Accelerate 5G Development
4.9.4 Voice Solution to Drive 5G Commercialisation
4.9.5 5G Enabling Device to Accelerate Vo5G
4.9.6 Service Assurance will be a Key Challenge
4.10 5G pricing approaches and best practices
4.11 5G ARPS trends and growth strategies
4.12 5G Market Pioneers and Leaders: Go-to-market strategies and best practices
4.13 5G Market Challengers: Go-to-market strategies and best practices
5.0 Analysis of Leading and Emerging 5G markets
5.1 Comparative review of the case study countries
5.2 Key takeaways from country case studies
5.3 Country case studies
5.3.1 USA: First to market 5G FWA
5.3.2 South Korea: First to launch nationwide 5G mobile networks
5.3.3 Japan: Planning 5G mobile service in 2020
5.3.4 China: A fast-mover in 5G
5.3.5 India: Reliance Jio will be a game changer
6.0 World 5G Market Opportunity Analysis and Forecast 2019-2025
6.1 Market Size and Forecast by Type: Subscriber and Revenue
6.2 Market Size and Forecast by Segment: Consumer and Enterprise
6.3 Market Size and Forecast by Region
6.3.1 North America
6.3.2 Asia Pacific
6.3.4 Latin America
6.3.5 Middle East & Africa
6.4 Market Size and Forecast by Vertical
6.4.2 Smart City
6.4.4 Logistics and Transportation
6.4.6 Media and Entertainment
6.5 Operator Billed Service Revenue vs. 5G-Enabled Industry Digitalisation Market
7.0 Worldwide 5G Vendors Ranking, Product Portfolio, & Analysis
7.1 5G Vendors Ranking in North America
7.2 5G Vendors Ranking in Asia Pacific
7.3 5G Vendors Ranking in Europe
7.4 5G Vendors Ranking in Latin America
7.5 5G Vendors Ranking in Middle East & Africa
7.6 5G Key Vendor Case Studies and Market Analysis
7.6.1 Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE)
List of Figures
Figure 3-1: 4G and 5G comparison
Figure 3-2: Number of commercial 5G networks, 2019-2025
Figure 3-3: 5G percentage of mobile subscriptions globally, 2019-2025
Figure 3-4: 5G penetration by region, 2025
Figure 4-1: Global monthly mobile data traffic by type (In Exabytes), 2019-2025
Figure 4-2: 5G pricing comparison
Figure 6-1: Worldwide 5G Subscription (In million), 2019-2025
Figure 6-2: Worldwide 5G Revenue (In US$ billion), 2019-2025
Figure 6-3: Worldwide 5G Subscription in Consumer Segment (In million), 2019-2025
Figure 6-4: Worldwide 5G Revenue in Consumer Segment (In US$ billion), 2019-2025
Figure 6-5: Worldwide 5G Subscription in Enterprise Segment (In million), 2019-2025
Figure 6-6: Worldwide 5G Revenue in Enterprise Segment (In US$ billion), 2019-2025
Figure 6-7: Worldwide 5G Subscription by Region (In million), 2019-2025
Figure 6-8: Worldwide 5G Revenue by Region (In US$ billion), 2025
Figure 6-9: North America 5G Subscription (In million), 2019-2025
Figure 6-10: Asia Pacific 5G Subscription (In million), 2019-2025
Figure 6-11: Europe 5G Subscription (In million), 2019-2025
Figure 6-12: Latin America 5G Subscription (In million), 2019-2025
Figure 6-13: Africa & Middle East 5G Subscription (In million), 2019-2025
Figure 6-14: 5G-Enabled Retail Revenue for ICT Players (In US$ billion), 2019-2025
Figure 6-15: 5G-Enabled Smart City Revenue for ICT Players (In US$ billion), 2019-2025
Figure 6-16: 5G-Enabled Automotive Revenue for ICT Players (In US$ billion), 2019-2025
Figure 6-17: 5G-Enabled Logistics and Transportation Revenue for ICT Players (In US$ billion), 2019-2025
Figure 6-18: 5G-Enabled Healthcare Revenue for ICT Players (In US$ billion), 2019-2025
Figure 6-19: 5G-Enabled Media and Entertainment Revenue for ICT Players (In US$ billion), 2019-2025
Figure 6-20: 5G-Enabled Manufacturing Revenue for ICT Players (In US$ billion), 2019-2025
Figure 6-21: Operator service revenues vs. Industry digitalisation revenues for ICT players (In US$ billion) 2018-2025
Figure 6-22: 5G-Enabled Industry Digitalisation Revenues for ICT Players (In US$ billion), 2019-2025
List of Tables
Table 2-1: Worldwide Government 5G initiatives and plans
Table 3-1: North America 5G Operator Trial & Commitment, Q4 2018
Table 3-2: Asia Pacific 5G Operator Trial & Commitment, Q4 2018
Table 3-3: Europe 5G Operator Trial & Commitment, Q4 2018
Table 3-4: Latin America 5G Operator Trial & Commitment, Q4 2018
Table 3-5: Middle East & Africa 5G Operator Trial & Commitment, Q4 2018
Table 6-1: Worldwide 5G Subscription by Region (In million), 2019-2025
Table 6-2: Worldwide 5G Revenue by Region (In US$ billion), 2019-2025
Table 6-3: Worldwide 5G Revenue by Industry (In US$ billion), 2019-2025
Companies Mentioned in the Research
3 Austria, 3 Hong Kong, Airtel, AIS, Alpha, Amdocs, Arqiva, AT&T, Batelco, beCloud, Bell Canada, Bouygues Telecom, Broadcom, C Spire, Cable & Wireless, Celcom Axiata, China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom, Chungwha, Claro, Deutsche Telekom, Dialog Axiata, Du, EE, Elisa, Ericsson, Etisalat, Far Eastone, Fastweb, Fujitsu, Globe Telecom, HTC, Huawei, Intel, Irancell, KDDI, KT, LG Uplus, Lifecell, Linkem, LMT, M1, Magyar Telecom, MediaTek, Megafon, Mobitel, Motorola, MTS, Netgear, Nokia, NTT Docomo, Omantel, OnePlus, Ooredoo, Oppo, Optus, Orange, PLDT, Proximus, Qualcomm, Reliance Jio, Rostelecom, Samsung, Singtel, SK Telecom, Smart, Smartone, Softbank, Sonera, Spark, Sprint, Starhub, STC, Sunrise, Swisscom, Tattelecom, Tele2, Telecom Italia, Telefónica, Telekom Romania, Telenet, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Telkomsel, Telstra, Telus, Three UK, TigoUne, TIM San Marino, T-Mobile, True Corp, Turk Telekom, Turkcell, US Cellular, Verizon Wireless, Vimpelcom (Beeline), Viva, Vodacom, Vodafone India, Vodafone UK, Wind, Xiaomi, Zain, ZTE.